Wind power production in India in the second (Q2) and third quarter (Q3) this year saw an unexpected drop due to low wind speeds caused by regional and global meteorological factors, according to an analysis by US-based consultancy firm, ArcVera Renewables.
It added that though variable year-to-year, wind power production in India in the second and third quarter this year was significantly lower than the long-term average production expectations which, based on an analysis of climate records and surface wind observation sites, was a rare event.
“Based on a review of meteorological weather records, the low wind speeds were caused by a combination of regional and global meteorological factors that seldom occur simultaneously, including a persistent high-pressure pattern over northern India and Tibet, and a unique warm sea surface event over the northern Indian Ocean,” said C R Anbalagan, country manager and director-business development at the firm.
Experts had applied advanced atmospheric science methods to explain the interannual variability anomalies of the wind energy resource in India.
According to the firm, annual wind farm performance expectations depend on the long-term accuracy of wind energy resource assessment, as lower wind resources could result in significant revenue reduction.
Experts gathered relevant recent and climatological historical data for the region or regions of interest, including El Nino/La Nina and other climate indices. They then compared frequency-of-return statistics for recent periods of low winds and prepared a report describing the results and including discussion of the recent event and return-time based on 30- to 60-year analysis.